I took the time to read, listen and watch much of the original coverage of the case. I needed time to do some of my own digging. My sales mentor Bob McCurdy used to tell me that, “A prospects conviction will match your conviction”, by the end of the meeting I knew John believed very deeply in what he was telling me. As I took in everything I became convinced that he was convinced. I sat for three hours listening to John share his experiences and the evidence gathered during his eight-year investigation into the case and his conviction could not have been stronger. I walked into this meeting knowing only that Ziegler claimed to have proof that Jerry Sandusky, the convicted pedophile from Penn State, was an innocent man and that he wanted to tell his story as a podcast. He was tough, he was brash, he was antagonizing, he was rude and at times inappropriate, but his reporting was outstanding. I remembered Ziegler as this fearless reporter who would do anything to get the story. I had wondered what had happened to Ziegler since I hadn’t heard him on-air for a number of years. I had been a fan of John Ziegler from his work on The John and Ken Show at KFI Radio years ago. With so much information to cover, Mike was okay with this being shared. Don’t wait for hindsight to inform you of your mistakes.Mike gave me this summary of “With the Benefit of Hindsight” to prepare for the show. Remember that what might look like a great idea at first glance may look like an obviously flawed idea when it fails. Make sure you look at your trading plan from multiple perspectives. Don’t get stuck in analysis paralysis, but on the other hand, don’t act too impulsively think through your decisions. And when that happens, we end up making mistakes. People have a natural tendency to think the best, but there are times that an optimistic attitude can bias our views. If you manage risk, you won’t get in much trouble by allowing a judgment bias to cloud your vision. All you can do is manage risk and try your best. That said, you are bound to make mistakes. All you can do is use infallible knowledge to make the best judgment you can possibly make. It’s impossible to have a God’s eye view when it comes to the market. In hindsight, you may think, “How could I have missed that? I should have known better.” Consumer confidence may have been lower than you had expected or an adverse world event may have lowered stock prices across the board. However, you may find that a variety of factors ended up decreasing the price of the stock. Why not? All indications from your point of view suggest an increase in price. Based on your own analysis of the situation, you may decide to go long.
Suppose you were trading a company that was about to report earnings, for example, and you had good reason to believe that it would beat analysts’ expectations. For example, we may narrow our focus to what we think is obvious, but upon further consideration, we may wonder why we didn’t see the flaws in our thinking.įor example, we may wrongly think a stock price is impervious to a prevailing trend. Behavioral economists, however, have shown that when thinking under pressure, many traders are prone to decision-making biases. We must use whatever information is available to make these decisions. There are times when a fast decision is essential when we have to think quickly. You have to trust your instincts and go with your gut, wrong or right, whether you like it or not. In the end, you must find a solution on your own, and there are times when you may be wrong. That’s what makes trading a challenge: Essentially, conventional wisdom is only right some of the time, and at other times, it’s just wrong. But there are times when conventional wisdom is wrong, and the astute trader has learned that there are times when he or she must break the rules, and go against conventional wisdom. It may also be wise to stand aside when a rate hike is looming, and make sure the company in which you are planning to invest isn’t about to report earnings. For example, conventional wisdom suggests avoiding the open. Have you ever planned a trade that seemed a sure winner, yet we’re surprised to find it had failed? A plan could look great when you think of it, but after it fails, and you had time to think about it a little more, it becomes obvious that it was a bad idea.Ī host of information must be considered in order to trade profitably.
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